The Number of Mobilized People is Higher, but the Evaders Are Less: The Outcomes of the Mobilization in 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the beginning of the full-scale war has increased the number of mobilized Ukrainian citizens. We have investigated the data from the court register with the help of the retrieval system «Grandma» to compare the results from 2022 to 2015 since these are the periods of intensive military activities and the first massive waves of mobilization in independent Ukraine.

Article 336 of the Ukrainian Constitution «The Evasion of Calling for the Mobilization»

During 2022, the highest rate of cases, namely 228, for the evasion of mobilization from citizens was seen in March. Since then, the number of cases is leveled to approximately 100 cases per month. In December, the rate of the records regarding the evaders fell ten times, and it included up to 19 cases per month.

There were 1108 overall cases in 2022. Despite that, during the full-scale war there, more people are required to mobilize, and people who ‘evade’ are less than two times compared to 2015. That year, there were 2256 cases under the same article.

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The number of proceedings of evading mobilization

2015	2,256
2022	1,108

Most of the accused, who are charged with this article during the full-scale war, are sentenced to from 2 to 3 years in jail and with a probationary period of from 1 to 2 years. Currently, there is only one actual case of imprisonment found in the public records when the accused was sentenced to 3 years in jail in August 2022.

Interestingly that almost 30 % of the overall number of convictions, according to this article, was recorded in Zakarpattia Oblast.

Accordingly, an increased number of the military could not cause the number of military crimes. One of the side effects of this trend has become the signing of bill 8271 by the President at the end of January 2023. It implies strengthening the responsibility for the military.

Article 402 of the Ukrainian Constitution «Disobedience»

Compared to 2015, the occasions of disobedience have raised in 6 times. In 2022, there were 1574 cases, according to this article, and the peak was in May- June, but since then, the number of cases has been decreasing.

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The number of proceedings of disobedience

2015	257
2022	1,574

Depending on the gravity of the crime, the accused were sentenced to retention in the disciplinary battalion, guardhouse, «suspended» sentence, contributions from salary in favor of the government at a rate from 10% to 20 %, or fine ranging from 34 to 154 thousands of hryvnias. Notably, an appeal against sentences concerning this article are absent in the register.

Article 407 of the Ukrainian Constitution «An unauthorized abandonment of military unit or duty station»

Under the article of AWOL, there were recorded 6183 cases. November was the month with the highest rate, consisting of 26 % of the overall number. In contrast, the frequency of such instances in 2015 was 1.6 times lower- 3926.

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The number of proceedings of AWOL

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
2015	538	412	402	213	279	492	270	316	391	259	237	118
2022	197	142	167	205	320	299	483	546	656	672	1,619	877

Article 408 of the Ukrainian Constitution «Desertion»

Under this article, there are registered 3214 cases in a year. The peak of runaways is noticed in March. Compared to the wave of mobilization in 2015, the number of such instances has increased three times.

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The number of proceedings of desertion

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
2015	88	70	101	25	28	52	185	230	59	73	33	53
2022	10	19	501	321	193	256	251	337	357	367	275	327